Growth Bar Chart

Will FSW CRS Cut off score reach 480 by end of 2020?

As of today 18th Jun 2020, Canada is having inflation rate of -0.4%. Country is fighting two wars at the same time. One is COVID 19 and another one is the Oil price war. Both of them taking huge toll on the Canadian economy. Canada, like most of developed countries,  spear heading towards a recession. Unemployment rate has reached 13.7% and the pandemic is going to cost  CAD 250B by end of 2020.
CANADIAN UNEMPLOYMENT

Canada was supposed to give Permanent Residency to 1 million immigrants between 2020-2022. Things might just slow down due to COVID 19 spread for immigrants who are not already in Canada for rest of the 2020. IRCC is probably targeting inland applicants for last few months. So, you can see the spike in the CRS cut off score in 2020. Even if IRCC invites 3500 candidates in next draw, the cut off score will be between 471-480. 

Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino hinted that Fed might cut back on immigration. Canada imports about 1% of the population each year to help contribute to the economy with the aging population. But don’t worry yet. There is no confirmed news about the cut back. At least, we will not know until fall 2020. Nonetheless, it will be a difficult time for the future immigrants.

FSW CRS Trend
CRS Score distribution of candidates in Express Entry pool as of Jun 8 2020

The silver lining is that IRCC is still continuing to process existing applications. Permanent residents are still flying in.

Regardless of COVID 19, you can expect the average CRS cut off scores to go higher. It is because there are a lot of people coming to Canada as Students and in Work Permits. Thanks to Trump. As USA is trying to block the path of new immigration, students are finding Canada a preferred destination.

Unlike US, Canada allows students to work 20 hours a week. Getting H1b (work visa in US) after graduation is really difficult. Even if someone manages to get H1b, it is really hard to get LPR (Green Card). In Canada, students can get citizenship in about 5-6 years. Whereas in US, it can take more than a decade. For Indians, multiply that with 3. So more students will flock in to Canada.

A Canadian degree with few years of work experience will give you very high CRS score. If you are outside Canada and have none of those two advantages, you just can not just beat that score.

So, if I see CRS cut off above 480 in late 2020 or early 2021, I will not be surprised.

Tending Post: Computer Based or Paper Based IELTS?

FSW Draw resultss till Jun 18th 2020.

Draw #
Date
Score
InTake
Cut Off Date
15110-Jun-2074334114-Apr-20
15028-May-204403,5157-Mar-20
14927-May-2075738527-Apr-20
14814-May-204473,37123-Dec-19
14713-May-2071852919-Mar-20
1461-May-204523,31110-Oct-19
14529-Apr-2069258911-Mar-20
14416-Apr-204553,78220-Jan-20
14315-Apr-2080811818-Mar-20
1429-Apr-204643,2944-Jan-20
1419-Apr-2069860618-Dec-19
14023-Mar-204673,23225-Nov-19
13918-Mar-2072066819-Mar-20
1384-Mar-204713,90024-Feb-20
13719-Feb-204704,50013-Jan-20
1365-Feb-204723,50030-Jan-20
13522-Jan-204713,4009-May-19
1348-Jan-204733,40027-Dec-19
13319-Dec-194693,20014-Nov-19
13211-Dec-194723,2006-Dec-19
13127-Nov-194713,60011-Nov-19
13013-Nov-194723,6008-Oct-19
12930-Oct-194753,90029-Aug-19
12816-Oct-193575004-Mar-19
1272-Oct-194643,90020-Sep-19
12618-Sep-194623,60029-Aug-19
1254-Sep-194633,60023-Aug-19
12420-Aug-194573,60024-Mar-19
12312-Aug-194663,6006-Aug-19
12224-Jul-194593,60025-May-19
12110-Jul-194603,60011-Jun-19
12026-Jun-194623,35011-May-19
11912-Jun-194653,3506-Jun-19
11829-May-194703,35023-May-19
11715-May-1933250029-Aug-18
1161-May-194503,3505-Nov-18
11517-Apr-194513,3502-Apr-19
1143-Apr-194513,3509-Jan-19
11320-Mar-194523,3507-Feb-19
1126-Mar-194543,35011-Feb-19
11120-Feb-194573,3506-Dec-18
11030-Jan-194383,35026-Apr-18
10923-Jan-194433,9002-Jan-19
10810-Jan-194493,9002-Jan-19
10719-Dec-184393,9006-Feb-18
10612-Dec-184453,90028-Nov-18
10528-Nov-184453,90022-Oct-18
10415-Nov-184493,90016-Sep-18
10329-Oct-184423,90016-Oct-18
10215-Oct-184403,90018-Sep-18
1013-Oct-184453,9002-Oct-18
10024-Sep-18284400 (Federal Skilled Trades Specific Draw)18-Feb-18
9918-Sep-184413,5006-Sep-18
985-Sep-184403,90029-Apr-18
9722-Aug-184403,75021-Feb-18
968-Aug-184403,75031-Jan-18
9525-Jul-184413,75031-Dec-17
9411-Jul-184423,75026-Jun-18
9325-Jun-184423,75028-Jan-18
9213-Jun-184513,75021-Jul-17
9130-May-18288700*PNP and FST only
9023-May-18440350030-Dec-17
899-May-18441350012-Dec-17
8825-Apr-1844135008-Dec-17
8711-Apr-18444350026-Mar-18
8626-Mar-18446300023-Feb-18
8514-Mar-1845630003-Mar-18
8421-Feb-18442300011-Feb-18
837-Feb-18442300029-May-17
8224-Jan-18444275017-Jan-18
8110-Jan-18446275018-Nov-17
8020-Dec-1744627502-Oct-17
796-Dec-17452275016-Nov-17
7815-Nov-17439275019-Oct-17
778-Nov-17458200023-Oct-17
761-Nov-17241505 
751-Nov-17673290 
7418-Oct-174362757 
734-Oct-174382801 
7220-Sep-174332871 
716-Sep-174352772 
7023-Aug-174343035 
699-Aug-174332991 
682-Aug-174413264 
6712-Jul-174403202 
6628-Jun-174493409 
6531-May-174133877 
6426-May-17199400 
6326-May-17775143 
6219-May-174153687 
614-May-174233796 
6019-Apr-174153665 
5912-Apr-174233923 
585-Apr-174313753 
5724-Mar-174413749 
561-Mar-174343884 
5522-Feb-174413611 
548-Feb-174473664 
5325-Jan-174533508 
5211-Jan-174593334 
514-Jan-174682902 
5022-Dec-164752878 
4916-Dec-164971936 
4830-Nov-16786559 
4716-Nov-164702427 
462-Nov-164722080 
4519-Oct-164841518 
4412-Oct-164841518 
4321-Sep-164831288 
427-Sep-164911000 
4124-Aug-16538750 
4010-Aug-16490754 
3927-Jul-16488755 
3813-Jul-16482747 
3729-Jun-16482773 
3615-Jun-16488752 
351-Jun-16483762 
3418-May-16484763 
336-May-16534799 
3220-Apr-164681018 
316-Apr-16470954 
3023-Mar-164701014 
299-Mar-164731013 
2824-Feb-164531484 
2710-Feb-164591505 
2627-Jan-164571468 
2513-Jan-164531518 
246-Jan-164611463 
2318-Dec-154601503 
224-Dec-154611451 
2127-Nov-154721559 
2013-Nov-154841506 
1923-Oct-154891502 
182-Oct-154501530 
1718-Sep-154501545 
168-Sep-154591517 
1521-Aug-154561523 
147-Aug-154711402 
1317-Jul-154511581 
1210-Jul-154631516 
1126-Jun-154691575 
1012-Jun-154821501 
922-May-157551361 
817-Apr-15453715 
710-Apr-15469925 
627-Mar-154531637 
520-Mar-154811620 
427-Feb-157351187 
320-Feb-15808849 
27-Feb-15818779 
131-Jan-15886779 

Courtesy of canada.ca 

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